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22
May

..you have been warned!

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Our competition director told us that this weekend is the last full weekend possible to practice for the Warwick Winter Cub. Take on this opportunity! Once this weekend is over, it's gone forever - it will never be back!

As for RASP and XC-Skies:
remember that these maps are computer generated predictions. Algorithm driven computer models are not able to give us super accurate forecasts (yet): it's garbage in - garbage out.
The data being being given to the computer is nowhere near the actual amount of data that exists in the real world.
Hence: RASP has got flaws in calculating convection in the afternoons when there is a decrease in solar radiation. RASP and XC-Skies always tell us that the days will end earlier than they actually do. It is certain that solar radiation and related temperatures will rise from the morning to the middle of the day. Predictions in the afternoon are more "out" because computer generated models are not being fed the available thermal storage capacity of the surface. Soil type, vegetation and surface humidity levels are not being fed accurately into the equation; RASP does not know about Boonah's spatial data (surrounded by hills etc). Computer calculated decrease in convection in the afternoons is based on decrease of solar radiation, possible blocking by clouds and possible change of air masses. Computers predict short days because the "sun travels lower on the horizon" during Winter and daylight is actually shorter.
Notwithstanding, this should not and will not stop us from doing some nice flights. Old school weather map interpretation and knowledge about surface conditions in addition with XC-SKies and RASP data can give a pretty good estimate on what is going to happen. Our "normal" weather maps have improved from what they were 10 or 15 years ago - back then we had to draw the trough lines ourself..
No matter if you would like to fly the silver or gold c distance, 500k or more - you have to be able to thermal efficiently and know how to avoid sink whilst "vorfliegen" (making xc-distance towards the next thermal or finish, not necessarily on a straight course line, in the least amount of sink).
Increase your ability to find a thermal, decrease the time it takes to find the core, only use the best available climb depending on where you are at in your working height band and make distance without loosing too much height. (..pretty simple - isn't it!?)
Here is another weekend to practice, practice, practice!
 
And here is another computer model:
check out: http://map.parool.ee/ 
(yes, you do have to select Australia and the intended date and time..)
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