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Weather stuff

Posted by on in Flying reports
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Just a heads up that Saturday (15 Sept) is looking useable for XC. I’m content (if there’s interest) to forecast and predict any decent days during the soaring season.  If we want it then the bias would be toward XC days rather than training. Alternatively I can do it by text to anyone interested if the club doesn’t want it in this format. 

i generally use NOAA for long range runs (out to 10 days). It reports heights in meters and as agl. It takes an atmospheric cut at 11, 13 and 16:00 during the day and is specific to a point (typically the airfield). I’ll use METVUW to forecast showers and obviously skysight when in to a couple of days of the actual day. Ill reference all the forecasts to which data run they are based on (00, 06, 12 and 18:00Z). So Saturday:

NOAA (13th 00Z) shows a late crack with around 700m at 11:00 with 14kt NW flow. By 13:00 it’s marginal CU at 2700m with 16kt NW flow and starting to die but likely still high based CU at 16:00 with 18kt NW’ly.

Skysight (12th 20Z) adds around 2 kts more wind and shows it more W’ly by late PM. It’s going to around 2500’ at 11, a pessimistic 6000’ at 13:00, and finallly under CU at 10,000 by 16:00.

The wind is a pain and the cu form late around Warwick, but are going earlier to the West.  There are still high based cu upwind to the NW at 16:30 on skysight with 2-3 kt climbs still leaving the ground (so last lift at cloud base around 17:00?).  Suggest we should be able to get somewhere around 500k done but it’ll be a later start.

KR Fitz.

UPDATE: NOAA 14th 00Z, skysight 14th 16:00L: NOAA has decreased heights a little with 2600m at 13:00 and 2900m at 17:00. Skysight now shows a later start but positively shows high cu to the NW still at 17:00.  Winds are a pain with 20kts locally, decreasing as we go N.  Suggest it’s a N first leg due the wind and the depth of convection being low to the west. Then a westerly leg to keep under the cu, last leg downwind from the high cu base area to the WNW of Warwick. the later start probably means a 12:00 launch, back around 17:30 if those cu are still usable at 17:00 still means close to 500".... but we’ll see!

DEBRIEF: Pretty much right and indeed a couple of 500k+ OLC flights out of Warwick. Late start tho, with Dan off first and struggling early. Climbs to around 2400M AMSL at 13:00 but not the 2600AGL that NOAA had predicted. Highest I saw was 3500M {11,500} so NOAA was right about the 17:00 heights. Skysight was a bit pessimistic about the CU timing as they were roughly an hour early but they formed first exactly as Skysight predicted.

OUTLOOK: NOAA says Sunday is low with 1500M. Next WE shows as 1800M on Sat and 2200M on Sun with a broad profile so a longer day.

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Comments

  • Dan Papacek
    Dan Papacek Friday, 14 September 2018

    Thanks for that Fitz, the more weather information the better. We are overdue for some XC days (especially on the weekend.....)

  • Justin Fitzgerald
    Justin Fitzgerald Saturday, 29 September 2018

    Dan, just had a look at next WE (6/7 oct) and it looks dismal. Probably another rain event - not that the garden doesn’t need it! Maybe 13/14 Oct, we shall see.

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